US shoppers are feeling the price pinch on several fronts. Not only could tariffs on imported products affect prices of a number of goods – for example, the US imports about 60% of its fresh fruits and about 40% of fresh vegetables, most of which are coming from Mexico and Canada – but staples like coffee and chocolate were already seeing record market price spikes. Cocoa prices surged to historic highs in spring of 2024 and coffee prices began building in late 2024, hitting new highs at the beginning of this year.

Many farmers’ livelihoods depend on the sale of coffee and cocoa, favorites of US shoppers, and for decades these farmers have been chronically underpaid for the valuable products they bring to the market. Many cocoa farmers, for example, make just a dollar or two per day. While prices may be high now, that’s not all good news for producers. Prices are going up because supply in critical markets is going down. This is caused by a cocktail of issues farmers are facing, including climate change effects like rainfall pattern shifts and plant disease, very limited access to the credit needed for investment in farming inputs and the rising costs of those inputs, like fertilizer.

Take Josefina Lopez, as an example: In a recent piece by the New York Times, she shared that last year she was able to sell 86 bags of her Honduran coffee, but this year she’s on pace to sell only 26. The coffee prices may be high, but with decreasing yields, they’re not high enough to bridge the gap for her and other farmers like her.

As Amanda Archila, Executive Director of Fairtrade America, explains, “Farmers have struggled for decades to weather the market’s volatility with scant support from more powerful private sector actors in the supply chain. For example, as coffee grew into the $200 billion industry it is today, the largest private sector actors extracted more than their fair share of profits and left the very farmers they rely upon in poverty.

“Now, the consequences of their lack of investment are laid bare. The entire supply chain faces greater risk than ever because of changing weather patterns, and the farmers positioned to mitigate on-the-ground threats to supply have almost no ability to address devastating disruptions, like crop disease and pest outbreaks, or implement agricultural practices that enable long-term resilience.”

The rollercoaster of tariff policies in the US adds another dimension of complexity for farmers and everyone else further down the value chain. Recent reporting reveals a state of confusion about how to best weather the unpredictable storm and the inevitable price hikes that will be passed on to the US consumer. As one coffee roaster said in a piece published by Sprudge, “This situation is maddening. I feel like I am in a holding pattern, hoarding all of the cash that I can with no confidence to spend on growing my business.” 

As we’ve seen in recent weeks, tariffs will come and go, and they are just one part of the pricing equation challenging American supply chains for products like cocoa and coffee. Threatened supply of these beloved products won’t vanish overnight. While shoppers are making wallet-driven decisions in an environment of increasing financial uncertainty, the truth is that prices for products they rely on, like coffee and chocolate, can only stabilize when the farmers responsible for them are valued and supported.

“Bringing supply back up will help prices retreat, but that requires a paradigm shift across industries,” continues Archila. “Companies and traders must recognize that they share responsibility in fixing problems across the supply chain, particularly at the farm level, and rethink their business models with the intention of creating a sustainable future.”